Prof. Kishor S. Trivedi, ECE Dept., Duke University, North Carolina, USA
Presentation Title: Reliability and Availability Modeling in Practice
Presentation Abstract: Reliability and availability assurance methods based on probabilistic models is the topic addressed in this talk. Key challenge in modeling of real-life complex systems is model largeness. Non-state-space solution methods are commonly used to solve models based on reliability block diagrams, fault trees and reliability graphs. Relatively efficient algorithms are known to handle systems with hundreds of components and have been implemented in many software packages. Nevertheless, many practical problems cannot be handled by such algorithms. Bounding algorithms are then used in such cases as was done for a major subsystem of Boeing 787. Non-state-space methods derive their efficiency from the independence assumption that is often violated in practice. State space methods based on Markov chains, stochastic Petri nets, semi-Markov and Markov regenerative processes can be used to model various kinds of dependencies among system components. However, the resulting state space explosion severely restricts the size of the problem that can be solved. Hierarchical and fixed-point iterative methods provide a scalable alternative that combines the strengths of state space and non-state-space methods and have been extensively used to solve real-life problems. We will take a journey through these model types via interesting real-world examples chosen from IBM, Cisco, Sun Microsystems, and Boeing. We will also mention other challenges such as how to take into account parametric uncertainty in model inputs and how to deal with non-exponential distributions.
Biography: Kishor Trivedi holds the Fitzgerald Hudson Chair in the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering at Duke University. He has a 1968 B.Tech. (EE) from IIT Mumbai and MS’72/PhD’74 (CS) from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. He has been on the Duke faculty since 1975. He is the author of a well-known text entitled, Probability and Statistics with Reliability, Queuing and Computer Science Applications, originally published by Prentice-Hall; a thoroughly revised second edition of this book has been published by John Wiley. The book is recently translated into Chinese. He has also published two other books entitled, Performance and Reliability Analysis of Computer Systems, published by Kluwer Academic Publishers and Queueing Networks and Markov Chains, John Wiley. His latest book, Reliability and Availability Engineering is published by Cambridge University Press in 2017. He is a Life Fellow of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers and a Golden Core Member of IEEE Computer Society. He has published over 600 articles and has supervised 48 Ph.D. dissertations. He is the recipient of IEEE Computer Society’s Technical Achievement Award for his research on Software Aging and Rejuvenation. He is a recipient of IEEE Reliability Society’s Lifetime Achievement Award. His h-index is 107. He has worked closely with industry in carrying out reliability/availability analysis, providing short courses on reliability, availability, and in the development and dissemination of software packages such as HARP, SHARPE, SREPT and SPNP.
Robert Axtell, Ph.D., George Mason University, Virginia, USA
Biography: Rob Axtell is Professor of Computational Social Science at George Mason University, Co-Director of the Computational Public Policy Lab at the Schar School of Government at Mason, and an affiliate of the Department of Economics there. His research focuses on the application of agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) techniques to economics and finance. He is the author, with Joshua Epstein, of Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up (MIT Press). His research has appeared in Science, Nature, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, as well as in leading field-specific journals such as The American Economic Review, and has been reprised in leading newspapers (e.g., Wall St. Journal, Los Angeles Times, Washington Post) and science magazines (e.g., Scientific American, Technology Review, Wired). For the past several years he has been working on business firm dynamics, using data on all U.S. companies. Such ABMS involve more than 100 million interacting agents representing employees who form 6 million firms having size, ages, growth rates, and so on that conform closely with the empirical data on American businesses. This work, the first model of an actual economy at 1:1 scale, is described at length in his forthcoming book, Dynamics of Firms: Data, Theories, and Models, due out later this year.
Description: Modeling and simulation (M&S) have advanced our understanding of complex systems and our controls over them in different areas. In the enterprise of exploring such complex systems, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) are a transformative technology shaping our knowledge and facilitating navigation in unconquered, unexplored, unknown frontiers. To push the boundaries of human understanding, marrying M&S with AI and ML is ineluctable and visionary. Leveraging the best of our knowledge of AI and ML allows us to accelerate, enhance, and delineate M&S.
This AI and Simulation (AIS) track is a dedicated forum to exchange our views, ideas, research methods, and applications to resolve the scientific question of what and how cutting-edge AI and ML methods can synergize M&S and vice versa. This track explorers M&S practices to which AI and ML methods are applied such as knowledge reasoning, computer vision, natural language processing, deep learning, and reinforcement learning.
In this track, we are seeking full papers (up to 12 pages) on original contributions across all modes of M&S leveraging AI and ML and interdisciplinary contributions that advance the state of the arts in AI and ML. This track will use the traditional format of having oral paper presentations. Topics of interest include, but not limited to:
Annual Simulation Symposium (ANSS)
José Luis Risco Martín and Erika F. Frydenlund
Description: Modeling and simulation (M&S) is currently the core of many industrial processes. It is a vital ingredient, since it can support early evaluation and optimization of designs, as well as ongoing verification while changes occur to make sure that the right product is developed with the required quality. However, there are still businesses that must understand that embracing M&S in project development and management is good practice, and this can be done showing real-world examples of success.
Real-world applications have been always the driving force for the development of Modeling and Simulation (M&S) theories. For over 50 years, the Annual Simulation Symposium has been a forum to exchange ideas, results, and methods related to real-world theories and applications of M&S for simulationists in industry, government, and academia.
The purpose of this track is to highlight and advance rigorous experimental, computational practices of M&S devoted to the study of real-world problems. Research on all topics concerning the practice of M&S theories are welcome. Authors are invited to present research of all kinds, including case studies and applications. Recommended topics in the track include, but are not limited to, the following with application to real-world problems:
Communications and Networking Simulation (CNS)
Abdolreza Abhari and Ala’a Al-Habashna
Description: The Communications and Network (CNS) Track discusses Communications and Networks as they are the nerve system of Information Technology and a dominating part of our daily lives. Over the years, topics related to communication and network research have expanded from traditional compute network systems to emerging systems such as Internet of Things and to information and network-based systems in broader contexts. Quality of Service, Security, Interoperability, speedy access, and many other important requirements need to be studied together with these network-based systems to be able to measure and monitor them by methodologies such as simulation, a proven technique that can save costs, time, and lives. All papers describing design principles, network simulation, and applications pertinent (but not limited) to the following topics are welcome:
Broader Communication and Network-based Systems
Cloud Computing and Distributed Systems
Internet of Things (IoT)
Wireless Network & Mobile Network
Cyber Physical Systems (CPS)
Umut Durak and Claudio Gomes
Description: The rate at which Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) become complex is outpacing our ability to comprehend them. Evidence of this can be seen in the accidents of recent years. This is not only due to the fact that CPSs are complex. Their development process is also complex. While systems comprised of many interacting, heterogeneous, components, are fundamental to our society, the complexity in their development process should also be managed. For instance:
– Intellectual property protection poses challenges in producing holistic simulation of systems comprised of third party components; and
– Distributed development demands innovative collaborative modelling techniques.
Modeling and Simulation (M\&S) techniques have proven to mitigate these issues, but they face new challenges as more is being demanded from these techniques. Some example questions include:
– Can the models be used for monitoring the system across whole of its lifecycle, as in Digital Twins?
– How much can be simulations be relied upon, as in Simulation Governance?
This track focuses on new developments in Modelling and Simulation (M&S) that enable us to manage the complexity of CPS and their development, and addressing the above questions.
Partial list of topics of interest:
Emerging Topic – Aspects of Pandemic Modeling (ET-APM)
Andreas Tolk and Jiangzhuo Chen
Description: In early 2020, the SARS-CoV-2 virus took the world by surprise and resulted in the COVID-19 pandemic. The virus not only caused significant loss of life, but it also endangered worldwide the sustainability of health care systems. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were designed to counter these dangers, but they sometimes resulted in unintended consequences with possible negative long-term consequences, such as pausing of preventative medical care or delaying non-essential procedures. There were also social as well as economic consequences that affected countless families. This year’s track on emerging topics focuses on all these aspects of pandemic modeling, including intended and unintended effects of the NPIs, helping to understand the COVID-19 challenge as a multi-value, multi-criteria decision problem that requires interdisciplinary contributions to allow for better strategic planning now and in the future. Topics of interest to this track include, but are not limited to:
High Performance Computing and Simulation (HPC)
Philip Wilsey and Sounak Gupta
Description: Advances in novel and heterogeneous architectures, high-end computers, large data stores are ushering in a new era of high performance parallel and distributed simulations. Along with these new capabilities come new challenges in computing and system modeling. The goal of HPC 2021 is to encourage innovation in high performance computing and communication technologies and to promote synergistic advances in modeling methodologies and simulation. It will promote the exchange of ideas and information between universities, industry, supercomputing centers, and national laboratories about new developments in system modeling, high performance computing and communication, scientific computing as well as simulation.
Topics of interest include but are not limited to:
Humans, Societies, and Artificial Agents (HSAA)
Philippe J. Giabbanelli and Andrew Crooks
Description: Artificial societies have typically relied on agent-based models, Geographical Information Systems (GIS), or cellular automata to capture the decision-making processes of individuals in relation to places and/or social interactions. This has supported a wide range of applications (e.g., in archaeology, economics, geography, psychology, political science, or health) and research tasks (e.g., what-if scenarios or predictive models, models to guide data collection). Several opportunities have recently emerged that augment the capacity of artificial societies at capturing complex human and social behavior. Mixed-methods and hybrid approaches now enable the use of ‘big data’, for instance by combining machine learning with artificial societies to explore the model’s output (i.e., artificial societies as input to machine learning), define the model structure (i.e. machine learning as a preliminary to designing artificial societies), or run a model efficiently (i.e. machine learning as a proxy or surrogate to artificial societies). Datasets are also broader in type since artificial societies can now be built from text, or generate textual as well as visual outputs to better engage end-users. Authors are encouraged to submit papers in the following areas:
Modeling and Simulation based Systems Engineering (MSBSE)
Andrea D’Ambrogio and Gregory Zacharewicz
Description: The track aims to bring together experts in model-based, model-driven software and systems engineering and M&S experts, with the objective to advance the state of the art in M&S based systems engineering and simulation systems engineering.
System architecture models describe the structure of a system by specifying its components and their relations. Modeling and Simulation (M&S) based systems engineering further promotes executable models and proposes simulation as the native mechanisms to address measures of performance and effectiveness throughout conceptual design, development and later systems life cycle phases.
As the system complexity increases, the executable system architecture (i.e., the simulation model) may become so complex that it is necessary to assess it not only as a valid support of SE processes but also as an objective of SE efforts. Executing an interdisciplinary systems engineering process for developing, maintaining and employing simulations, which enable systems engineers to experiment and gain insights about the systems of interest, is referred to as simulation systems engineering.
We invite and encourage researchers and practitioners of M&S based systems engineering and simulation systems engineering from any application domain to publish and share their contributions at the track.
A partial list of topics of interest includes:
To stimulate creativity, however, the track maintains a wider scope and welcomes all contributions offering original perspectives on M&S based systems engineering and simulation systems engineering.
Modeling and Simulation for Smart Energy Systems (MSSES)
James Nutaro and Ozgur Ozmen
Description: Smart energy systems integrate sensing, communication, and control to more efficiently produce, transmit, and use electrical power, and the new capabilities created by this technology have the potential to radically transform our economy. At the same time, smart energy systems are necessarily complex software systems that must be cost effective and perform reliably while overseeing critical tasks. Modeling and simulation will play an indispensable role in achieving the simultaneous goals of reliability and affordability by providing virtual venues in which to explore requirements, develop new algorithms, and perform software testing. This track invites papers describing novel uses of modeling and simulation to create and demonstrate smart energy systems that improve reliability, efficiency, environmental impact, and other aspects of energy generation. Topics of interest include, but are not limited to
Modeling and Simulation in Cyber Security (MSCS)
Sachin Shetty and Danda Rawat
Description: Modeling and Simulation has the ability to improve our understanding and gain better insights into the exploitability and impact of threat landscape in cyber systems underpinning several critical infrastructures. The emergence of Internet of Everything has resulted in the growth in interactions between humans, physical and cyber systems and there is a increased need to understand how these interactions could be exploited by adversaries. Modeling and simulation provide a cost-effective means to support research, development, refinement, deployment, and evaluation of the next generation of security solutions for preventing, detecting, and recovering from cyber-attacks and failures. The goal of this track is to provide a forum to present and discuss advancements in research, tools, techniques, solutions, best practices, and heuristics related to the modeling and simulation of cybersecurity. The symposium will address all aspects of modeling, analyzing, design, simulation, implementation, deployment and management of security algorithms, protocols, architectures and systems. We encourage submissions related to all aspects of cybersecurity in a modeling and simulation context in a broad spectrum of application areas. Topics of interest include, but are not limited to:
Modeling and Simulation in Medicine (MSM)
Minsik Hong, Jerzy W. Rozenblit, and Johannes Sametinger
Description: The past decade has brought about a dramatic increase in the deployment of simulation-based techniques in medicine and its related healthcare fields. We use simulation scenarios extensively for training of medical personnel, students, first responders, and emergency response coordinators. Rapid advances in computer technologies, biomedical and systems engineering, drive the development of cyber physical systems that serve as simulation based training platforms. Such integrated engineering and scientific methods are also the basis for design and development of new medical devices whose reliability, safety, and cybersecurity are paramount for the well-being of patients. In addition, very complex models “digitally” plan pharmaceutical studies, assess potential treatment modalities, and carry out analytics on big health related data sets. It is clear that we need to strengthen methodological and theoretical foundations in order to provide integrated, connected, and cross-cutting solutions for modeling and simulation in healthcare. This meeting will unify approaches for such solutions and “connect” researchers, developers, and medical practitioners in an attempt to further advance the simulation modeling agenda in medicine.
The conference will focus on (but will not be limited to) the following topical areas:
We solicit papers to address the above and related areas with focus on both the underlying methodological and theoretical foundations and practical applications.
Theory and Foundations for Modeling and Simulation (TMS)
Gabriel Wainer and Andrea Vandin
Description: The purpose of this track is to provide a forum to discuss recent advancements in M&S theory. The main focus is on modeling, methodology, practice and software to cope with the challenges arising out of these, as well as lessons learned and challenges. The Symposium bridges different areas in the field of theory of M&S, including formal modeling, model-checking, graph transformation, modeling methodologies. Topics of interest include (but are not limited to):
Modular Approaches in M&S
Complex Systems M&S
M&S Tools and Standards
Description: Following the tradition of SpringSim and SummerSim, the Annual Modeling and Simulation Conference will host several high-quality tutorials as part of its conference. Tutorials provide researchers and practitioners with the opportunity to introduce their applications, tools, methodologies or theories in 90-120 minutes long tutorials.
Tutorials engage conference attendees in extended discussions and are great venues for hands-on activities. Tutorials can be introductory, oriented toward the participants who are interested in broadening their knowledge or, advanced tutorials for the participants who seek the latest advances in modelling and simulation. We would like to invite and encourage modelling and simulation researchers and practitioners in academia, government agencies or industry to submit proposals for tutorials.
Topics of interest include modelling and simulation theories, methodologies and tools. Application areas include but are not limited to accessibility, collaborative training, learning everywhere, human-simulation interface, inclusion, cyber-physical systems simulation, Internet-of-things simulation, multi-sensory simulation environments, aviation and aerospace, environment, energy, and other industries.
M&S Poster & Demo Track
Salim Chemlal and Mohammad F. Obeid
Description: The M&S posters and demos track provides a prime opportunity for students and researchers to showcase their prototypes and research ideas and get feedback from experts in the field, fellow researchers, and conference attendees. The track is open to graduate students, post-docs, and researchers at all stages of their careers. Undergraduate students are cordially invited to submit and participate in the Demos.
Posters offer an opportunity for presenting late-breaking research results, on-going research, and speculative or innovative work in progress. Demos are an excellent way to showcase the developed simulation and share technical aspects of system design that are difficult to capture in a “static” presentation. The system does not necessarily have to be in its final completed stage. Demos are also an opportunity for full-paper authors to advertise their actual presentation.
Submissions Guidelines: Submissions for Posters and Demos consist of a 2-page extended abstract paper. All abstracts should describe the research motivation, M&S relevance of the problems being addressed, proposed methodology, and results of completed research. Demo abstracts should convey the development as well as screenshots of the simulation. The demo should not be a plug-and-play experience that conveys various simulation outcomes. Limited use of open-source tools and libraries can be incorporated; however, the use of commercial simulation tools is not allowed in the demo. Authors may also include a URL of a screencast video and additional external material in their submission. Abstracts should be submitted through the ANNSIM START System, as PDF files formatted using the templates provided on the ANNSIM webpage.
Accepted poster and demo abstracts will be published in the conference program but not in the conference proceedings.
Poster and Demo Presentations: For each accepted poster and demo, a video recording of the presentation will have to be submitted. The recording has to be less than 10 minutes. One of the authors must be present during the online Q&A sessions scheduled in the program. The poster presentation can consist of one or more landscape slides. The demo presentation can be supplemented with a ppt presentation.
Awards: Each presentation will be reviewed among the organizing committee for best poster and demo awards. The main evaluation criteria include the relevance and quality of the posters and demos in terms of originality, relevance to M&S, technical soundness, and presentation quality. A certificate will be awarded to: 1) Best Overall Demo; 2) Best Undergraduate Demo; and 3) Best Poster.
Authors of accepted papers are expected to attend the conference, present their work to their peers, transfer copyright, and pay a conference registration fee at the time their camera-ready paper is submitted. Conference proceedings may be submitted to the ACM and IEEE Digital Libraries, for archiving and indexed in DBLP Computer Science Bibliography and SCOPUS. Some exceptions apply.
General Technical Papers
Original, high-quality technical papers are solicited for review, possible presentation and subsequent publication in the conference proceedings. Papers are max 12 pages long with single column format (see author’s kit at https://scs.org/authorskit). Papers must not have appeared before (or be pending) in a journal or conference with published proceedings, nor may they be under review or submitted to another forum during ANNSIM’21 review process.
All submissions will be peer reviewed by a minimum of 3 reviewers and feedback will be provided. Authors of papers accepted for the ANNSIM’21 Conference are expected to attend the conference, present their work to their peers, transfer copyright, and pay a conference registration fee at the time their camera-ready paper is submitted.
Tutorial proposals should be two pages in length. Interested authors are invited to submit an accompanying optional paper: maximum of 12 pages long, with a minimum of five pages, with single column format.
Poster & Demos
Submissions for Posters and Demos consist of a 2-page extended abstract paper. All abstracts should describe the research motivation, M&S relevance of the problems being addressed, proposed methodology, and results of completed research. Demo abstracts should convey the development as well as screenshots of the simulation. The demo should not be a plug-and-play experience that conveys various simulation outcomes. Limited use of open-source tools and libraries can be incorporated; however, the use of commercial simulation tools is not allowed in the demo. Authors may also include a URL of a screencast video and additional external material in their submission. Abstracts should be submitted through the ANNSIM START System, as PDF files formatted using the templates provided on the ANNSIM webpage.
Accepted poster and demo abstracts will be published in the conference program but not in the conference proceedings.
For each accepted poster and demo, a video recording of the presentation will have to be submitted. The recording has to be less than 10 minutes. One of the authors must be present during the online Q&A sessions scheduled in the program. The poster presentation can consist of one or more landscape slides. The demo presentation can be supplemented with a ppt presentation.
Each presentation will be reviewed among the organizing committee for best poster and demo awards. The main evaluation criteria include the relevance and quality of the posters and demos in terms of originality, relevance to M&S, technical soundness, and presentation quality. A certificate will be awarded to: 1) Best Overall Demo; 2) Best Undergraduate Demo; and 3) Best Poster.
Important Dates for the Poster & Demo Submissions:
Abstract Submission Date: May 14th, 2021
Acceptance Notification: May 28th, 2021
All presented work will be available to conference attendees electronically.
Conference Registration Fees To Be Determined.
|Category||Regular||Late (After July 1, 2021)||Regular||Late (After July 1, 2021)|
|Member Rate||Member Rate||Member Rate||Non Member Rate||Non Member Rate||Non Member Rate|
|(For Online Presentation)||(For Online Presentation)||(In person)||(For Online Presentation)||(For Online Presentation)||(In person)|
|Full Paper Registration||Registration Fee||Registration Fee||Registration Fee||Registration Fee||Registration Fee||Registration Fee|
|Regular||$400 USD||$500 USD||$500 USD||$485 USD||$585 USD||$585 USD|
|Student*||$200 USD||$300 USD||$300 USD||$230 USD||$330 USD||$330 USD|
|Retiree*||$185 USD||$185 USD||$200 USD||$215 USD||$215 USD||$230 USD|
|Invited Speaker & Committee Member*||$185 USD||$185 USD||$200 USD||$215 USD||$215 USD||$230 USD|
|Listener Registration||Registration Fee||Registration Fee||Registration Fee||Registration Fee||Registration Fee||Registration Fee|
|Regular*||$150 USD||$200 USD||N/A||$235 USD||$285 USD||N/A|
|Student*||$120 USD||$170 USD||N/A||$150 USD||$200 USD||N/A|
|Retiree*||$20 USD||$20 USD||N/A||$20 USD||$20 USD||N/A|
|Additional Paper(s)*||$380 USD/paper|
|Additional Page(s)*||$70 USD/page|
|Social Networking Event*||$80 USD|
|Day/Onsite Registration Rate||Registration Fee|
|Non Student*||$300 USD|
*Manual Registration and Verification Forms:
Full Paper Manual Registration Form
Listener Registration Forms
Extras Manual Registration Form
Day/Onsite Registration Form
Student Verification Form
Retiree Verification Form
Visa Invitation Request Form
For students to receive the student discount and price, please turn in the Student Verification Form. All other registrations will require a filled manual registration form to be emailed to the SCS Office. All forms must be sent to email@example.com.
|Full Paper Registration Includes||Abstract Registration Includes||Listener Registration Includes||Companion Includes|
|1. Attending all technical sessions||1. Attending all technical sessions||1. Attending all technical sessions||1. Attending all technical sessions|
|2. Paper publication and presentation||2. Paper presentation||2. Program book, name badge, certificate, souvenirs||2. Coffee Breaks, Lunch, Reception|
|3. Conference proceedings (electronic copy)||3. Program book, name badge, certificate, souvenirs||3. Coffee Breaks, Lunch, Reception|
|4. Program book, name badge, certificate, souvenirs||4. Coffee Breaks, Lunch, Reception|
|5. Coffee Breaks, Lunch, Reception|
If the participants request cancellation and refund due to personal reasons, see refund policy:
* 60 days ahead of the conference: 70% of payment refund
* 30-60 days ahead of the conference: 50% of payment refund
* Within 30 days ahead of the conference: no refund
* If the conference cannot be held on time due to force majeure such as politics, weather and disasters, the organizer will not bear any compensation and will not refund the registration fee.
Cancellation and refund request must be made formally by email.
If the conference cannot be held on time due to force majeure such as politics, weather and disasters, the organizer reserves the right to postpone the conference dates or cancel the conference. Participants are obligated to cooperate with the organizer’s arrangements and refund policy.
Important Notification: As coronavirus is spreading, online/video presentation will be acceptable. Online presentation will be arranged accordingly. For your safety, please inform the conference secretary if you want to choose online/video presentation. Also, you can register with the “Special Rate” above.
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