Editor’s Pick – Analyzing the Impact of Modeling Choices and Assumptions in Compartmental Epidemiological Models
Özgür Özmen2 , James J. Nutaro1 , Laura L. Pullman1 , and Arvind Ramanathan2 ,
Abstract
Computational disease spread models can be broadly classified into differential equation-based (EBM) and agent-based models (ABM). We examine these models in the context of illuminating their hidden assumptions and the impact these may have on the model outcomes. Drawing relevant conclusions about usability of a model requires reliable information regarding its modeling strategy and its associated assumptions. Hence, we aim to provide clear guidelines on development of these models and delineate important modeling choices that causes the differences between the model outputs. In this study, we present a quantitative analysis of how the choice of model trajectories and temporal resolution (continuous versus discrete-event models), coupling between agents (instantaneous versus delayed interactions), and progress of patients from one stage of disease to the other affect the overall outcomes of modeling disease spread. Our study reveals that the magnitude and velocity of the simulated epidemic depends critically on the selection of modeling principles, various assumptions of disease process, and the choice of time advance. In order to inform public health officials and improve reproducibility, these initial decisions of modelers should be carefully considered and recorded when building and documenting an agent-based model.
Recent Posts
- Editor’s Pick – Simulation-Based Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making Framework for an Optimal Apron Layout for a Roll-on/Roll-off/Passenger Terminal Considering Passenger Service Quality
- Editor’s Pick – Three-Dimensional Finite Element Analysis Comparative Model of Tooth–Implant Nonrigid Fixation
- Editor’s Pick – An Implicit Multistep Numerical Method for Real-Time Simulation of Stiff Systems
- 2022 Annual Modeling and Simulation Conference
- 2022 Power Plant Simulation Conference
Categories
Archives
- February 2022
- November 2021
- August 2021
- March 2021
- August 2020
- April 2020
- February 2020
- October 2019
- May 2019
- October 2018
- March 2018
- February 2018
- December 2017
- November 2017
- October 2017
- September 2017
- August 2017
- July 2017
- April 2017
- March 2017
- December 2016
- November 2016
- September 2016
- August 2016
- June 2016
- April 2016
- May 2015