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August 18, 2020
Forecasting Violent Events in the Middle East and North Africa Using the Hidden Markov Model and Regularized Autoregressive Models
Authors: KSM Tozammel Hossain, Shuyang Gao, Brendan Kennedy, Aram Galstyan, and Prem Natarajan Abstract This paper focuses on forecasting Military Action-type events by both state and non-state actors. Here we demonstrate that the dynamics of these types of events can […]
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April 16, 2020
Misinformation Making a Disease Outbreak Worse: Outcomes Compared for Influenza, Monkey Pox, and Norovirus
By Julii Brainard and Paul R. Hunter Abstract Health misinformation can exacerbate infectious disease outbreaks. Especially pernicious advice could be classified as “fake news”: manufactured with no respect for accuracy and often integrated with emotive or conspiracy-framed narratives. We built […]
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February 13, 2020
Assessing the Cognitive Complexity of Cyber Range Environments
By Antonio Roque, Douglas Stetson, Daniel J Hannon Abstract We present a conceptual foundation and empirical framework for modeling cognitive complexity in cyber range event operating environments. Definitions of key concepts, such as cognitive complexity, task difficulty, and Blue Team […]
By Leandro Watanabe, Jacob Barhak, Chris Myers Abstract Disease modelers have been modeling progression of diseases for several decades using such tools as Markov models or microsimulation. However, they need to address a serious challenge; many models they create are […]
The 2018 SCS Editor’s Choice award has been awarded to Berenice Gudiño-Mendoza, Ernesto Lopez-Mellado, and Enrique Aquayo-Lara, for their paper, “A scheme for the simulation of networked agent systems modeled by timed hybrid Petri nets.” Read the paper here: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0037549717737861
News
October 10, 2018
Cyber threat assessment via attack scenario simulation using an integrated adversary and network modeling approach
By Stephen Moskal1, Shanchieh Jay Yang1, and Michael E Kuhl2 Abstract Existing research on cyber threat assessment focuses on analyzing the network vulnerabilities and producing possible attack graphs. Cyber attacks in real-world enterprise networks, however, vary significantly due to not only […]
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October 9, 2018
The protoscience of cybersecurity
By Eric N Hatleback Abstract I argue that marking a proper distinction between two types of research in the cybersecurity field obviates the present debate concerning a “science of cybersecurity.” Once the terminology has been properly disambiguated, the accurate descriptor for […]
By Linda Barney This article features the results of the December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and of how it was one of the most powerful and destructive seismic events in history and cause a tsunami which killed thousands of lives from many […]
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February 28, 2018
Earthquake Simulations of California’s Hayward Fault: Supercomputer Modeling Helps Show More Realistic Motions
From the Lawrence Livermore National Library In the next 30 years, there is a one-in-three chance that California’s Hayward fault will rupture with a 6.7 magnitude or higher earthquake, according to the United States Geologic Survey (USGS). Such an earthquake will […]
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December 6, 2017
Note on Cyber Risk and Cyber Security
As fall sports seasons get under way and concerns related to concussions in contact sports continue to grow, a biomedical engineering professor is developing better tools to understand the mechanics of brain injuries in athletes.