Keynote Address #3

Modeling and Simulation in an Unprecedented Role in Business: Enabling a New Technical Stock Market Index

part of the Summer Simulation Multiconference 2005 (SummerSim'05)

Sponsored by:
The Society for Modeling and Simulation International (SCS)

Wednesday, July 27, 2005, 8:30am

Hilton Philadelphia/Cherry Hill
Philadelphia, PA

presented by

Prof. Sumit Ghosh
ECE Department, Stevens Institute of Technology, NJ, USA

Abstract

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) represents a reliable measure of the past and present stock performance and, ultimately, the state of the current industry. Underneath the surface, the key role of the DJIA metric has been to attract individual and institutional investors to buy stocks and fuel the growth engine of U.S. industries. DJIA, however, is speculative and from perspective of the investor, a realistic vision of the future state of any given industry sector is noticeably missing from it. Recognizing the ever increasing role of technology in the industries over the past decades and the promise of technology playing an even greater role in the future, this presentation introduces, for the first time, the concept of Industry’s New Technology Potential (INTeP) index, whose primary objective is to quantify the potential for a new technology to come to fruition and significantly influence the state of any given industry sector in the future, positively or otherwise. INTeP is a new synthetic metric, which along with the DJIA, promises the average investor a reliable and realistic picture of the likely future state of the industry. The investor can then choose to commit to long-term investment in industries that are most likely to grow in the future along new directions. In essence, INTeP index is forged of imagination and creativity, tempered by the most basic principles from science and engineering, and, most important, validated through sophisticated behavior modeling and asynchronous distributed simulation (BMADS). The validation imparts realism to the vision of the future, thereby serving as a key enabler for INTeP. BMADS leverages the elements of computational intelligence and networking to create an environment, unique in the history of our civilization, through which any imaginative ideas and unprecedented hypotheses may be validated logically, systematically, and scientifically. In addition, it yields insights into the choice of parametric values that are most likely to help the new technology come to fruition. BMADS represents the ability to emulate, i.e., recreate with controlled fidelity, any activity in the physical or an abstract world utilizing the resources -- computers, networks, and algorithms. The emulation is reproducible in the scientific sense and this scientific methodology represents the only vehicle known to us today that permits a systematic study of any complex system -- real or hypothetical. INTeP index will apply to virtually every manufacturing and service industry including agriculture, airline, automobile, banking, computing, electronics, food services and restaurant, healthcare, insurance, music, national and homeland defense, pharmaceutical, photography and motion video, railroad, telecommunications, space, and others.

Bio. of Prof. Sumit Ghosh

Prof. Sumit Ghosh is the Thomas E. Hattrick ‘42 Endowed Chair Professor of Information Systems Engineering in the ECE Department at Stevens Institute of Technology in Hoboken, New Jersey. Prior to Stevens, he had served as the associate chair for research and graduate programs in the Computer Science and Engineering Department at Arizona State University. Before ASU, Prof. Ghosh had been on the faculty of Computer Engineering at Brown University, Rhode Island, and before that he had been a member of technical staff (principal investigator) of VLSI Systems Research Department at Bell Laboratories Research (Area 11) in Holmdel, New Jersey. He received his B. Tech. degree from the Indian Institute of Technology at Kanpur, India, and his M.S. and Ph.D. degrees from Stanford University, California. Prof. Ghosh served as the founding VP for Education in SCS. He is the primary author of five reference books: Hardware Description Languages: Concepts and Principles (IEEE Press, 2000); Modeling and Asynchronous Distributed Simulation of Complex Systems (IEEE Press, 2000); Intelligent Transportation Systems: New Principles and Architectures (CRC Press, 2000; First reprint 2002); Principles of Secure Network Systems Design (Springer-Verlag, 2002); and Algorithm Design for Networked Information Technology Systems: Principles and Applications (Springer-Verlag, 2003). He has written five invited book chapters and edited (with Profs. Ted Stohr and Manu Malek) Guarding Your Business: A Management Approach to Security (Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2004). He has written 95+ transactions/journal papers and 95 refereed conference papers.

Sponsored by The Society for Modeling and Simulation International
P.O. Box 17900
San Diego, California 92177
Phone 858-277-3888
Fax 858-277-3930
E-mail scs@scs.org

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